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By: Tanvi Oza, Climateworks Centre in Melbourne

With Australia bidding to host COP31 in two years, this year’s meeting takes on extra significance.

This year’s Conference of the Parties, or COP29, which kicks off in Baku, Azerbaijan, on November 11, has extra significance for Australia.

COP is an annual gathering of global leaders, businesses, non-governmental organisations and climate activists coming together to negotiate on priority agenda items set forth in the Paris Agreement on climate action. 

Global eyes will be on Australia with a likely announcement of whether the country will host COP31 in 2026, in partnership with Pacific Island neighbours. This would be met with significant expectations from the Pacific and Southeast Asia that Australia lead the way towards more ambitious climate action – starting with COP29.

COP29 will be focused on raising climate ambitions on a range of fronts. Notably, it is also being held shortly after the US elections which will influence the ambition of different countries across different negotiation items. 

Australia’s delegation will be led by Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen, who also has an important role as the co-chair of the finance working group. 

Finance top of the agenda

Indeed, this year’s meeting has been dubbed  the ‘finance COP’,  because it should see the finalisation of a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) which will set expectations for climate finance beyond 2025.

This new goal will replace the 2009 pledge where wealthy nations agreed to a collective goal of mobilising $US 100 billion per year by 2020 for climate action in developing countries. 

Climate finance is particularly relevant to Australia.

It is a key concern for neighbouring Pacific Island nations that are bearing the brunt of climate impacts such as sea-level rise, cyclones and storm surges. Australia gives most of its climate finance to Pacific Island nations, but its finance contributions are falling short across the region and globally.

Given Australia has bid to host COP in 2026, it needs to demonstrate genuine leadership around climate finance if it is to gain the trust of Pacific partners.

However, there are concerns that Australia’s current climate finance commitments are well short of its estimated fair share of the current $US100 billion goal.

Australia has redirected substantial portions of its existing development aid budget to be spent as a form of climate finance instead of it being ‘new and additional’. Australia has committed to delivering $AU3 billion towards the global goal over 2020-25, largely through existing ODA commitments.

This reduces the amount of money available for other priority development sectors such as education, health and water security.  

How finance might happen

There are still divides between countries regarding the structure of the NCQG, including which countries will contribute, how much they will mobilise as well as how much funding can be implemented through the private sector.

Another topic on the COP table is whether finance will be provided in grants or loans. 

Alongside the NCQG negotiations, this COP will be a key opportunity for Australia to increase its contributions and commit to its fair share, demonstrate its leadership and build trust with Pacific Island nations who will be looking to Australia’s support in negotiations on contentious issues of climate finance with global counterparts. 

Setting up for the next round of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) will be a major agenda item. 

The Azerbaijani Presidency is urging countries to come forward early with updated, 1.5 degrees Celsius-aligned NDCs. The Troika Partners (United Arab Emirates, Azerbaijan and Brazil) will be submitting their updated NDCs, promising to lead the way with 1.5 degrees-aligned plans. Australia is expected to submit its updated NDC in 2025.

COP29 will be a crucial opportunity for Australia to think bigger before it submits its next NDC and a chance to demonstrate its commitment towards the Pacific and Southeast Asia. 

This includes tackling both domestic and regional decarbonisation challenges by scaling up emissions reduction and making commitments to global pledges – such as rapidly phasing out fossil fuels.

International summits like COP are also an integral part of wider diplomacy and trade negotiations so that Australia can position itself to make the most out of emerging economic opportunities. Australia wants to become a renewable energy superpower and its actions at COP will help determine how other countries respond.

Potential leader

As a member of major political and economic groups such as G20 and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and potential COP host, Australia has an opportunity at COP29 to lead on key negotiation items, such as the NCQG and play a full and active role in helping create momentum for increased ambition for setting and delivering the NDCs. 

This will set the stage for Australia to demonstrate a plan to replace fossil fuel exports with clean exports and support other countries in their decarbonisation journeys. Securing strong financing and NDC commitments internationally this year will position Australia for success in two years.

Australia’s potential position as a climate leader in the Asia–Pacific region will be dependent on how well it generates increased momentum on both climate action in Australia, urging wealthy countries to submit ambitious climate agendas, as well as helping other regions such as Southeast Asia raise their ambitions. 

This year’s conference represents a pivotal opportunity for Australia to show greater climate leadership on the global stage, particularly if it is to host COP31 in genuine partnership with the Pacific.

Originally published under Creative Commons by 360info™.

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